Quickfire Saturday Selections

With a full day going on for Mr. T, here are the five plays for today worth one unit a piece:

Villanova -6 vs. Georgetown
Texas A&M -10.5 vs. Iowa State
Washington -8 vs. Arizona
BYU -6 vs. Utah
Indiana +15 @ Penn State

Record: 33-39 on units (28-31 on selections)
Bank: $155.09

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.


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Mr T's Sweet 16

With only a little over a week left in the regular season, I figured it was time to put up some rankings. I probably should've been throwing these out there for a while now, but it's the first year here at Rise and Fire.

#1 - Pittsburgh – Pitt is a well rounded team that will give you 100% effort in every game. They've shown vulnerability when Blair gets in foul trouble, but since every team has a fault, I find this one to be the least concerning.
#2 - North Carolina - They have as much offensive balance as any team in the country, but their defensive effort and closing of games ability can be questioned. If Lawson can get a wingman for late game situations, and there are enough options, they'll settle that issue.
#3 - Memphis - They're outside shooting isn't great, but you know you're getting defense, athleticism, and Tyreke Evans when you need him.
#4 - Connecticut - The loss of Jerome Dyson has brought the perimeter defense down to last year's levels. UConn also lacks a true three-point gunner. AJ Price and their interior size, however, will take them pretty far.
#5 - Villanova - While undersized, Nova still hits the boards with reckless abandon. They're a smart team with all the different ways to score (inside, dribble drive, and perimeter).
#6 - Michigan St. - They have some issues with turnovers, but notice how they've done great work on the road in the Big Ten. They've got a great threat at PG and as long as they remember to play inside out, the offense is in line with the strong defense.
#7 - Oklahoma - Blake Griffin will return and while the team lacks great defense, the emergence of Juan Patillo (though suspended this weekend) brings extra offense to a team that didn't need it.
#8 - Louisville - Guard play will eventually bite the Cardinals in the butt, but Terence Williams is going to do his best to make sure that's later rather than sooner. Preparing for Louisville's defense on a short week won't be a cup of tea.
#9 - Missouri - 40 minutes of hell is back and Missouri has the athletes to back it up. The limited preparation for the second game of the weekend will help their cause, but they might fall a little short in the backcourt.
#10 - Wake Forest - When their head is in the game, Wake Forest can play with anyone in the country. They lack a consistent three-point shooting threat outside of Teague, but they'll run with the best of em.
#11 - Clemson - Decision making and execution will probably be the Tigers' Achilles heel. The loss to Virginia Tech showed mediocre coaching and questionable point guard generalship on the final play, but their natural talent and pressing defense should take them far.
#12 - Kansas - It's rather amazing what Bill Self has done despite losing five NBA players from last year's National Championship team. They'll probably come up short on experience on a given night, but they have as much talent as anyone.
#13 - Duke - Rise and Fire's favorite whipping boy might've stepped their game up with the addition of Elliot Williams to the starting lineup. I mentioned in November that he wasn't playing enough and Coach K finally listened. The interior offense and defense, however, will be the death of them.
#14 - Arizona St. - When the best player on the court is on your squad, you'll win more than you lose. ASU's zone defense is another one of those tough second game preparation defenses.
#15 - Marquette - The injury to Dominic James shouldn't hurt them as much as you think because of his poor foul and three-point shooting. They'll need to get a rhythm in the coming weeks and they're bench will shrink just a little bit.
#16 - Purdue - Boilermaker finds are excited for next year, but this year's team can still play. They're a little short in the frontcourt (as was seen last night while missing Calasan), but they have enough on both ends of the floor to survive a couple games.
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Road Warriors

Tuesday was a nice day in the sun. A couple of home favorites treated us well as Ohio State coasted and LSU took care of business. Being 11-5 on selections in the last week is a nice feeling. There seems to be light at the end of the tunnel, so I’m pouncing on the momentum.

Tonight, we’re going with three road teams. It’s two units on Purdue -2 @ Michigan. Purdue’s defense should handle Beilein’s offense and the Wolverines are slowly finding their way into the NIT. Maybe Memphis -4 @ UAB is a trap situation, but since no one’s playing as well as Memphis these days, I’ll throw a unit behind them. They realize this is the last tough game before the NCAA tournament and Calipari should have them focused. I’ll also take one unit on Minnesota +8 @ Illinois. When Illinois encounters good defensive teams, their offense goes into the tank. Expect another Big Ten slugfest.

Record: 32-36 on units (27-29 on selections)
Bank: $165.09

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.


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Sometimes it Rains

I was feeling very good about the fund at 9pm ET on Sunday. I was 3-0 on picks for the day and Wake had cut a 22-point Duke lead down to two. I was within sniffing distance of getting back to square one with the fund. Then Wake let Duke go on a 13-4 run and the game was over. Regardless, I still see progress in my results over the last week.

Now I look to find a little opportunity in Super Tuesday. I’ll take LSU -4 vs. Florida for one unit. LSU has quietly disposed of all SEC competition and Florida is a sub-par road team. They’re getting too much respect in this game. They don’t deserve to have a perceived edge on a neutral floor. I’ll also take one unit on Ohio State -4.5 vs. Penn State. Ohio State has been stifled by tough defenses lately and they’ll gladly welcome the cupcake Nittany Lions to town. With a major edge in the frontcourt, I expect the Buckeyes to roll.

Record: 30-36 on units (25-29 on selections)
Bank: $155.64

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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What to Watch for: 2/23 – 3/1

Big Monday just won’t be the same without Blake Griffin in the middle. Oklahoma is smartly resting him (this writer knows concussions are no joke) and it might actually help their March Madness cause to learn how to win without him against Kansas.

Tuesday night finally provides some reason to watch SEC basketball with Florida taking a trip to Baton Rouge for a showdown against LSU. Florida’s road record is highly lacking, so the Gators will need to turn up the heat to improve their seeding.

Without Jerome Dyson, Connecticut may find it a little harder to keep Marquette’s super Senior trio out of the paint when they head to Milwaukee on Wednesday. Marquette will have to prove they can handle teams with interior scoring.

Arizona State faces off against Washington on Thursday in a showdown for Pac Ten supremacy. The winner will have the inside track on the #1 seed in the conference tournament.

Clemson travels down to Florida State on Saturday looking for revenge. We’ll see whether Clemson has mentally stabilized as well as if Florida State is ready to play with expectations.

It’s not an easy week for LSU as they end it with a road contest at Kentucky. Their motivation may stem on Tuesday’s result, but Kentucky should be extremely motivated with few quality wins on their resume.

Sunday’s have become my favorite day for college basketball and this one will be no different. Marquette, fresh off their UConn game, rolls into Louisville in a game with Big East seeding implications. Kansas gets a chance to avenge their disappointing finish when they traveled to Missouri. Finally, Illinois and Michigan State should provide about 110 points of offense in an all out brawl.
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Slowdown Sunday

It's back-to-back days of recaps as the blog pushes forward. I always find Sunday's a little more enjoyable because I find it easier to analyze the games. There's less channel changing and only a few games on at once to focus on.

• Syracuse players might want to start calling out screens or else Johnny Flynn is gonna get killed.
• Cuse becomes too stagnant on offense at times. I’m not sure if it’s laziness or coaching, but there was too much perimeter passing and lack of movement during a lull in the second half.
• Boeheim went too long with Ongenaet at the five spot. This is possibly why the offense lacked movement since there was no interior scoring option on the floor. Nova was also able to attack the glass without Jackson or Onuaku present.
• Andy Rautins was throwing up a few too many 3s. After swishing early, he lost his touch, but kept firing. While shooters have to shoot themselves out of slumps, taking it to the basket might’ve been a nice change of pace.
• There are a lot of things to like about the Wildcats. Nova cuts up the press. They make few mental mistakes. They have five players who average two offensive rebounds a game, which shows tenacity and a great nose for the ball. And finally they have good hands to swipe the rock away from the ball-handler.
• Freshman Andre Young gives Clemson instant offense off the bench, but can get careless with the ball. When his head’s on straight, he combines with Potter for a productive second unit.
• Raymond Sykes is a moron. He’s athletic yes, but he makes some asinine decisions on the floor.
• Michigan State was inept offensively for the first 30 minutes of their game against Wisconsin. Then they started bringing the focus back on getting the ball inside and the points started flowing. Go figure…
• Wisconsin’s offense, on the other hand, was moving until the final ten minutes. They’re motion offense became too perimeter oriented and they stayed out of the lane. Too often they relied on Hughes to create something off the dribble. Where was the posting of guards at least that we’ve come to know from Wisconsin? They needed to get something established inside to get easier looks and to open up kick-outs for their three-point attempts.
• Duke has turned to Elliot Williams at PG to get more pressure on the basketball. This leads to more athleticism and defensive ball pressure, but it should allow for teams to pressure Duke as well.
  
• Wake Forest fell asleep for ten minutes in the first half and it cost them the game. They lost focus, possibly due to the lack of upperclassmen. Their turnovers let Duke build a lead they never relinquished.

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One Month for the Resume

With only one month left until the tournament starts, it’s time to dig deeper into what’s out there. Although I probably should’ve focused a little more on the BracketBuster side of things, I like to save that for conference tournament time to catch teams as their entering Selection Sunday. I was able to catch some of that action as well as the numerous other games on Saturday’s card.

• Although it's not tournament related, it needs to be said that Jim Calhoun is a whiny cry baby.
• Davidson will be a non-factor in this year’s tournament. Don’t expect another Elite Eight run because they lack a cohesive offense outside of letting Curry rip it up.
• Butler on the other hand showed some nice features. Gordon Heyward is a player in the Singler/Hummel mode, who somehow escaped the Big Ten. Matt Howard’s got moves in the post. They probably couldn’t handle a team with superior athleticism, but the right matchup could suit them.
• St. Mary’s is coming along without Patty Mills. The win against Utah St. will prove to be vital on their resume. Omar Samhan is an immovable object in the lane. The only thing St. Mary’s could’ve done better was get Diamon Simpson the ball more, but that will happen when their PG returns. Hopefully the improvements elsewhere don’t go out the window.
• North Carolina got a little tight in the final minutes against Maryland. Danny Green, specifically, came up short on a couple shots, which just screams of nervous energy.
• While I do like Marquette’s perimeter trio, it does worry me that they don’t have a post presence. What separates them from a team like Duke is that their offense don’t rely heavily on the three-pointer and because all of their guards can attack the rim. Plus I have faith in the seniors' ability to score late in a close game.
• Marquette’s defense isn’t as good as it’s been in previous years. McNeal still deserves the defensive praise, but they lack an interior presence and they give up too many good looks from range.
• It looks like Providence won’t make the tournament, but if they do, remember that defense isn’t part of their vocabulary.
• When the game was on the line, Tyreke Evans did what was necessary to get Memphis the win. He started looking for his shot and dribbled off screens to find open 18-footers. The only negative was his inability to completely ice the game with better foul shooting.
• California lacked leadership in the final minutes against Oregon State and typically that falls on the shoulders of Jerome Randle, one of my least favorite point guards. The Bears only had seven assists as a team and you couldn’t tell Randle was even on the floor during half the game.
• The other knock on Cal’s performance was lackluster defending. Get your hands up fellas!

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More of the Same

The Super Saturday ended up being rather average as I split the units and selections right down the middle at 50% accuracy. Thanks to vig, that doesn’t make for a good day, but I’m licking my chops for Sunday’s slate.

The filet mignon on my menu today is three units on Wake Forest +7 vs. Duke with another single unit on the Wake Forest +250 money line. If you need to know why I’m picking Wake Forest today, you obviously haven’t been following portions of this website. But yes, Duke is still my favorite team. I'll reiterate that you bet with your head and not your heart.

Other than Wake, I’ll take one unit on Clemson -7 @ Georgia Tech, one unit on Wisconsin and Michigan State under 126.5, and one unit on Minnesota -6 vs. Northwestern. Georgia Tech’s program seems to be in shambles and word out of Clemson is that they’re starting to understand the mental approach needed every game. Wisconsin will keep the game low scoring against the Spartans because that’s the only chance they’ll have to win. Expect tough defense, poor shooting, and a nice low total. Minnesota is happy to be home, so expect them to be licking their chops against Northwestern.

Record: 27-32 on units (22-27 on selections)
Bank: $162.34

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.


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Super Saturday

Wednesday was a nice day for the fund with a three game sweep, but there’s no party to throw just yet. There’s still that mountain to climb. This Saturday’s slate has 101 betting propositions, which sounds like any gambling junkie’s birthday. After suddenly increasing from one game a day to the three that were bet on Wednesday, today’s choices will double Wednesday’s figure (and hopefully the result).

I’ll take one unit on Providence -1.5 vs. Notre Dame because of the constantly talked about home/road split and Providence’s athleticism on the perimeter. Gimme one unit on Indiana +21.5 @ Purdue because I expect a Purdue letdown and a feisty effort from the Hoosiers. We’ll up it to two units for Marquette +3 @ Georgetown. I like the experience edge Marquette has and the fact Georgetown hasn’t beaten anyone decent since UConn. UCLA -12.5 vs. Washington State smells like a one unit play because Washington State’s man defense actually plays into the hands of UCLA, who is much better at home. California is looking for revenge at a resilient Oregon State team and the Cal -5 cooks into a two unit selection since Oregon State doesn’t defend the three-point line well. Finally it’s Depaul +25.5 @ Pittsburgh for one unit. While it looked extra nice at +27 when it opened, I’ll still take it here for one unit expecting a Panthers letdown from Monday’s slugfest.

Record: 23-28 on units (19-24 on selections)
Bank: $165.06

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.


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Rock Bottom

I’m not sure if anyone smells what I’m cooking these days. It’s been a struggle to find my niche, but the fund is still in its preliminary stages. At day’s end, I’d rather win big in March than pick up a few extra pennies in February. I don’t want this to be perceived as my willingness to accept this current poor performance. It’s more that there is still a hill to climb.

With that hill staring me right in the face, I’ve decided to choose three games for Wednesday’s card. I’ll take two units on West Virginia -9 vs. Notre Dame. The home/road split with the teams involved is rather obvious along with Notre Dame not looking that tremendous against USF. I’ll take one unit on Louisville -12 vs. Providence. I don’t see Providence having the defensive guard play to cause Louisville trouble. Finally I’ll like Penn State +9.5 @ Illinois for one unit because Illinois’ recent form has the public too excited about them and I think the PSU guards are back.

Record: 19-28 on units (16-24 on selections)
Bank: $146.16

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.


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Smacked Around in Mackey

Tuesday night’s Michigan State vs. Purdue contest had a couple of question marks as we approached tip-off. Answers were found in the starting lineup for Purdue with Robbie Hummel and the indication that Raymar Morgan would be able to give Michigan State about 15-20 minutes. Michigan State is probably still asking questions of themselves after a disappointing performance in Mackey Arena. Michigan State hadn’t lost a conference road game all year, but they looked like an unsettled bunch in dealing with the Purdue crowd. Star PG Kalin Lucas unraveled under the pressure. He was unable to find his shot and was a human turnover machine.

Where was the interior offense from the Spartans? Delvon Roe had become a factor offensively and only took three shots. Goran Suton found himself taking too many perimeter jumpers. MSU became a jump shooting team and that’s where Purdue’s defensive strength lies. They should’ve attacked Hummel’s bad back on the post and beaten him down with Suton, Roe, Morgan, and Gray. I’m not sure if it was Izzo’s inferior game plan, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. The blame for Michigan State’s lack of offensive efficiency falls on Lucas’ shoulders because too many possessions led to rushed shots instead of entry passes to the post. Lucas was someone I looked forward to watching in March, but now I need a little more convincing.

Purdue excelled with the encouragement of their home crowd. If you didn’t hear during the broadcast, Duke was able to take the Boilermaker fans out of the game during their visit, but Michigan State was unable to do so. I’m going to make the assumption that Hummel’s back won’t be 100% at any point this season. His injury has allowed JaJuan Johnson to become the focal point of the offense and that’s definitely a positive. The offense really moves when the focus is on Johnson with Hummel and Moore playing complimentary roles. Most importantly, Purdue was able to succeed with a lackluster performance from three-point range because they finally stepped up the defensive intensity.

My issue with Purdue still lies in the point guard position. Lewis Jackson gets a little careless with the rock and goes too fast. It is tough succeeding in March with a point guard who is a freshman and the other Boilermaker guards aren’t the greatest ball-handlers. If Purdue stays away from a pressure defense, they’ll be successful, but pressure could send them packing.
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All Quiet on the NCAA Front

It wasn’t the most eventful weekend of basketball with very few matchups amongst Top 25 teams. There’s always good knowledge to be absorbed, however, so here’s what was brought to the table:

• When West Virginia beats someone on the road, call me.
• UCLA can’t play well offensively against a zone defense. Their newly upgraded offense looked pedestrian on the Arizona trip over the weekend. Sure they jobbed by the refs in the Arizona State, but the Arizona game was embarrassing.
• Syracuse will have issues in close games, but maybe that’s too obvious of a statement. Their foul shooting is piss-poor and Onuaku can’t even be on the floor late in games because his percentage is less than 25%. Blowing a 16-point lead at home with less than five minutes to go, despite winning, is rather disgraceful.
• Wisconsin is slowly building a tournament resume as they work their way through the system. They still lack a dynamic offense, so don’t get too excited about their prospects.
• Penn State’s guard could finally be coming out of their offensive funk. Minnesota’s known for their defense in the backcourt, and although it was a road game, I expected them to contain Battle and Pringle. Penn State’s success going forward rests on the shoulders of their two guards.
• Clemson looked rather lost in the last few minutes of regulation and in overtime. They need some leadership from the backcourt and didn’t get it while falling flat on their face at Virginia.
• Duke needs to stop letting teams shoot above 50% from the field. Things, however, may never be on the up and up without a shot blocker in the middle.
• Michigan’s Manny Harris is an exciting young player. It’s probably a year too early if Michigan makes it to the dance, but beware of upset city, courtesy of Manny Harris.

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What to Watch for: 2/16 – 2/22

Big Monday goes to new heights when Pittsburgh heads to Hartford for a showdown with Connecticut. For some reason I’m a little worried what happens to Pittsburgh if they lose both UConn games, but I’m not asking the same question about the Huskies…

I’m not sure if Robbie Hummel will be back for the Boilermakers on Tuesday night, but Purdue will need him if they plan on giving Michigan State a game. MSU hasn’t won in their last two trips to Mackey Arena and if it wants to be considered a true Final Four candidate, they’ll need a win this time.

UCLA just had a terrible week in Arizona and things won’t come easy at home vs. Washington on Thursday. If Washington’s smart, they’ll show the Bruins some zone defense.

Stephon Curry’s ankle will come into question on Bracket Buster Saturday against Butler. Davidson could use a marquee win because they haven’t fared well against Top 25 teams.

Texas could throw some zone at Oklahoma and they have some nice athletic size to handle Blake Griffin. The Oklahoma backcourt isn’t one to press, so Texas might have a chance at home come Saturday.

The SEC gets lost in the shuffle these days because no team is ranked in the Top 25. Kentucky hosts Tennessee on Saturday with some work left to do for a tournament guarantee.

Syracuse could use some payback when Villanova comes calling on Sunday. They were embarrassed in Philadelphia and need to keep accumulating wins, especially at home.

Wake Forest’s trip to Duke sounded a lot better three weeks ago, but it’s still a pivotal game with both teams struggling mightily. Wake Forest seems to show up for the big ones and Duke needs to find a way to not go stagnant offensively and limit the opponent’s FG% for a change.
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Be My Valentine

I hate to be one for sour grapes, but Thursday's incorrect UCLA selection was highly impacted by some very questionable refereeing. The referees involved seemed very home court conscious, specifically with a charging call on Collison with 38 seconds left that was quite bush league. There's nothing one can do about it now, however, as we must face the music and move on. Saturday's card provided a laundry list of college games, but not many that really struck me as betting opportunities. There are a few places I could lay my money, but the point here is to back bets I'm feeling confident with, especially with my recent limitation of one game a day.

With all that in mind, today's play is only one unit on Wisconsin -6 vs. Ohio State. OSU is a young team playing in a road environment that's never friendly. Wisconsin has been playing much better lately and I expect the defensive intensity to frazzle the young Buckeyes. Wisconsin's tough and physical nature in the frontcourt will negatively impact Mullens and Turner. Bo Ryan, will you be my Valentine?

Record: 19-27 on units (16-23 on selections)
Bank: $151.16

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Revenge is Always Sweet

I got into an argument on a message board in the last few days over the Duke/UNC affair as a betting proposition. The message board bases a majority of their wagers on betting against public perception. With their theories, Duke +2 seemed like a nice idea to them. As an avid follower of Duke basketball, I tried to get them to back down from the cause because I felt very strongly about UNC taking the game easily. That led to numerous insults from the firing squad and eventually they banned me from the site. It seems as if they couldn't take some conversation in regards to one of the selections, despite the fact that I had agreed with some of their previous choices. I do believe there's value in what you actually watch in the games.

The same theory applies tonight when it comes to UCLA -1 @ Arizona State. I've been on the UCLA bandwagon the last two weeks because of the offensive adjustments they've made. They're playing as well as any team in the country these days, which is not what's been going on with Arizona State. Add the motivation for UCLA after losing in the earlier encounter at home and this one seems like a two unit play to me. It might not sit well with the message board people, but I'll take it for tonight.

Record: 19-25 on units (16-22 on selections)
Bank: $161.16

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Not So Crazy At Cameron

It was inevitable, at least in my eyes, that North Carolina would take Duke to the woodshed last night. It took some yelling and screaming at halftime, but eventually that ended up being the case. Duke consistently struggles in recent years with teams who have more athletic players than them and last night was no different. Let's not start with Duke, however, because the focus of the game should be North Carolina.

UNC brought their best game for 30 of the 40 minutes. They started out by attacking Duke inside and used their length and athleticism to slow the Duke offense. But after gaining an early lead, they turned down their intensity level and starting getting lazy on the defensive end. Carolina actually struggled when Duke pushed the hot pace right back at them towards the end of the half. UNC started rushing questionable shots and the speed of the game took some energy away from their defensive effort. After halftime, Carolina came out focused and the key was Ty Lawson. No one on Duke can keep him out of the lane, but he didn't seem into the game early on. Once he flipped the switch in the second half, it was game over for the Blue Devils. Hansborough only had nine shots, making six, and didn't force himself into the offense. I thought they could've used him more, but it was nice to see they could win without him being dominant. Dion Thompson and Ed Davis provide a nice compliment to Hansborough inside. The only problematic thing for UNC was the play of freshman PG Larry Drew off the bench. He looked unprepared for such a big stage. The bottom line for the Tar Heels is that we saw they can play as well as anyone, offensively and defensively, when they are focused on the task at hand.

It's the same story as always for Duke, but I'll note a few things. Greg Paulus had zero points in the second half after providing all the energy in the first half. Duke was only in the game because of a great shooting stretch when UNC took down the intensity level. It might seem odd that Duke, a good defensive team, gave up so many points, but they just don't have the personnel to D up Carolina. There was a long stretch in the second half where Duke couldn't score and it was a result of two factors. Gerald Henderson disappeared offensively and floated around instead of looking for the rock and driving it. Secondly, when you don't have a post presence (yes, we're beating a dead horse), it's harder to get easy scores. If you live by the three, you die by the three. Typically, Coach K went away from using his bench (zero minutes for Louis Williams) in a bigger game. If there's one positive, it was that Nolan Smith looked less lost.
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There's Nothing Fina'

After swearing to take only home teams for a week, I've already changed my tune. You see, I feel like I know the Duke vs. North Carolina basketball rivalry as well as any at this point in my life. Every year I circle the dates on my calendar, touting them as two of the best sports days in the year. I've also reached a fan standpoint with Duke where I'm able to logically reason what the outcome of a game could be, rather than just blindly assuming Duke will win.

This all leads to my selection of three units on North Carolina -2 @ Duke tonight as one of my choices for the year. It's quite possible that some steam has built on my opinion after arguing about it for an hour last night over a gambling message board, but my reasoning stands true. Doesn’t Duke consistently struggle with more athletic teams. Who's guarding Tyler Hansborough? Now that Paulus is starting again, can he Ty Lawson out of the paint? Does UNC's publically questioned defense, which statistically isn't as bad as you'd think, even need to worry about a Duke offense that looks inferior over the last few weeks? Why does home field advantage even matter for Duke if UNC has won three in a row at Cameron? I think you can tell what my answer to all those questions would be. It won't stop me from rooting for the Blue Devils in this game, but we all know you bet with your head and cheer with your heart.

P.S. I've noticed my record on Wagerline's pick one game a night has been very successful. With that in mind, I'll be doing my best to just work with my favorite choice and nothing else for the coming days.

Record: 16-25 on units (15-22 on selections)
Bank: $147.51

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Always a Big Monday

Penn State really screwed me yesterday. I never expected their offense to look so flat in a home game. Wisconsin methodically picked them apart. Tonight, we're going with Pittsburgh -8.5 vs. West Virginia for one unit. I think the rivalry keeps it close, but how can WVU handle the Pittsburgh beef. I also like Missouri -4.5 vs. Kansas for one unit. Missouri has been very good at home, Kansas hasn't been quite as good on the road, and their young players might feel the heat in a tough environment.

Record: 15-24 on units (14-21 on selections)
Bank: $147.96

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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What to Watch for: 2/9 – 2/15

Monday brings a fun doubleheader on ESPN. Can West Virginia use the Backyard Brawl rivalry to swoop into Pittsburgh and swipe a resume win? More than likely, it'll be a question of how much DeJuan Blair can dominate an inferior WVU frontcourt.

The other intriguing game is Kansas' trip to Missouri. Missouri has finally gained national credibility with a boost up to #18 in the rankings. Kansas hasn't lost a home game all year. There are plenty of underclassmen on the floor in this affair, so whichever team holds its nerves will survive.

Marquette stumbled against South Florida over the weekend and Tuesday night will provide them a chance to reassert themselves in the upper echelon of the Big East. Villanova needs to defend their home court and they're playing as well as anyone in the country these days.

Syracuse doesn't need to win against Connecticut on Wednesday night. They just need to be competitive enough on the road to gain back respect from the tournament committee.

North Carolina's venture to Duke on Wednesday needs no subtext.

UCLA's lost to Arizona State at home caused Ben Howland to turn to his senior leaders for a makeover. A rejuvenated Bruins team needs to take advantage of a vulnerable ASU team to prove it's Pac Ten dominance.

Florida State has the size and athleticism to go toe to toe with Wake Forest, who has shown their youth too much recently. Can FSU steal another resume road win?

Kansas State hosts Kansas for an in-state battle on Saturday night with the need to show they are tournament worthy. This is shaping up to be a hotly contested road trip for the Jayhawks this week.
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No Bite in the Gonzaga Bulldogs

After another weekend full of college hoops, we now find ourselves less than six weeks away from the tournament. I know you’re as excited as I am. With time running out, let’s get right to the thoughts from the weekend.

• Gonzaga put up a pathetic display against Memphis on Saturday night. Memphis’ length really disrupted Gonzaga’s offense. On the defensive end, they gave up way too many easy baskets, despite their reputation for being a reasonable defense squad. They didn’t force Memphis to take too many outside shots and they were absolutely abused on the glass. This did not do themselves any favors for March seeding.
• Austin Daye continues to look extremely soft.
• Memphis, on the other hand, really displayed a noteworthy performance. With their defense, rebounding, and athleticism, they’ll definitely be worthy of consideration in March. Despite being in a weaker conference, they’ve been historically successful in the tourney.
• Tyreke Evans is so smooth off the dribble and runs the offense well for a freshman. He’s a playmaker and makes a huge impact on the game without forcing things too much.
• The inside duo of Taggart and Dozier will cause havoc against any team without similar athleticism.
• I wonder if Pittsburgh will ever get tripped up because of a poor start to the game. They started out slowly against both Notre Dame and Depaul, but were able to win both games easily because they were the superior product.
• If Texas is losing by two, why is A.J. Abrams taking an off-balance three-pointer for the win? Give Damion James the ball and let him drive to the hoop.
• Can Syracuse ever show up focused for a road game? It’s like they became a little too confident after winning some early season games on neutral courts.
• The Nolan Smith experiment at starting PG for Duke is failing miserably and he’s obviously losing confidence. It took an inspired performance by Greg Paulus just to beat Miami, but the same faults continue to be there.
• I’m really feeling what UCLA is bringing these days. They’re pushing the offensive pace and it’s giving them easy baskets they haven’t been getting without a post presence.
• I chalk up Illinois’ win to the suddenly leaky Purdue defense more than a suddenly discovered offense.
• Isiaah Thomas makes shots down the stretch for Washington. It’s always nice when your point guard brings that to the table.
• I don’t see them making the tournament, but if I played against Wisconsin I’d play zone and press. It's a shame no one in the Big Ten brings that pressure or else it'd be relevant for betting opportunities.

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Lazy Sunday

Yesterday provided a small bounce back to good forturne for the fund. After getting thrashed on the multi-unit plays earlier in the week, the two unit play on UCLA loomed large. With a light card today, the only one I like is one unit on Penn State -1.5 vs. Wisconsin. Wisconsin bounced back from six straight conference losses to win at home on Thursday, but their offense is generally enigmatic. Purdue's got more quality offensive options and should be able to use their athleticism to get the advantage over the Badgers today.

Record: 15-23 on units (14-20 on selections)
Bank: $152.96

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Good to be Home

Following a poor run of form at the fund, I've taken some time to breathe and gather my thoughts. It seemed as if I was constantly betting favorites, which is common for the uneducated gambler. What's worse is that I was betting road favorites. We're dealing with kids between the ages of 18-22 for the most part. The home court factor is obviously a bigger deal than I was making. I'd found most of my success betting home teams, so I've decided for the next eight days, I'll only be betting on home teams (whether they're dogs of favorites doesn't matter).

Today's card starts out with two units on UCLA -11.5 vs. Notre Dame. The Bruins are flying right now since they tinkered to make their offense more up-tempo. Notre Dame is falling fast and has shown they don't have good road form. My other selection is one unit on Gonzaga -5 vs. Memphis. Like I mentioned earlier in the week, Gonzaga has more on the line in this game and you'd hope that means they come with intensity from the home crowd. I also think the experience of their back court over a Tyreke Evans led Memphis team will be the difference.

Record: 13-22 on units (13-19 on selections)
Bank: $148.65

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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X Marks the Spot

I took a break from betting for the evening because my recent run was one of the worst on record. After analyzing some numbers that I'll touch on during my next fund selection, I took the evening to check into some teams I wasn't as knowledgeable about. Playing in a secondary conference, Xavier hasn't really been on the public radar since getting thrashed by Duke in late December. Since then, they've quietly dominated their conference and moved up to #9 in the rankings. To give them some credit, they've rounded into form as their point guard situation has become more solidified. The decisive win at LSU gave them some legitimacy.

On the court, Xavier showed some nice tournament qualities against Temple. Freshman Terrell Holloway is banged up, so it's not fair to give him an assessment as the team's starting point guard. Word on the street is that the team has turned the corner since he became the starter. The team's x-factor is B.J. Raymond, who is as hot as any player in the Atlantic 10 right now. He's got a reasonably well rounded game, but his outside shooting ability will be a tournament factor. Brad Redford adds another outside touch. Other leading scorers C.J. Anderson and Derrick Brown didn't have their best efforts, but I liked the energy I saw from Jamel McClean and Jason Love on the inside. Coach Sean Miller preaches defense and it showed as they shutdown Temple's leading scorer, Dionte Christmas. The test vs. Dayton next week will be one to watch and we'll see how Holloway develops before making a final conclusion. However, the efficiency on both ends is nice to see.

In west coast news, California handled Washington with ease tonight, or so you'd think if you look at the final score. Turnovers killed Washington in the second half as they let Jerome Randle heat up and allowed too many easy California baskets. On the offensive end, they hit the boards hard, but couldn't find their shots. The blame falls on freshman Isaiah Thomas, who showed his youth in letting Washington's offense sputter when their defense wasn't stepping up. Jon Brockman is a house inside, but only took four shots as he couldn't find his rhythm. Justin Dentmon showed a lack of confidence and was unable to fire from distance. California was bound to give a strong effort given their two losses on the road last week, so Washington should've brought a strong game. The game was there to be won at halftime and Washington crumbled. Will they bounce back against Stanford?
Does it even matter when it comes to March? Thomas needs to gain more experience down the stretch if this team is to be taken seriously.

And in a final note, watch out for UCLA. While they didn't play on Thursday, they've lit things up in their last three games, and I expect them to run Notre Dame on Saturday.
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Who Turned off the Boiler?

With The Doctor on a leave of absence, I felt it was time to reach out to some of the other college basketball watchers out there to gather their opinions. Not that anyone should be tired of hearing my thoughts given my NCAA Tournament track record, but it’s still nice to get some diversity. I reached out to Lafayette Gold, Purdue alum and RexGrossmanIsOurQuarterback.com contributor, for his thoughts on the Purdue defeat at Ohio State. Since I missed most of the game, I was interested in seeing how exactly I lost a couple units.

Mr. T: How do you let a team shoot 60% from the floor? And they got outrebounded by 13? It’s a miracle it got to OT.

Lafayette Gold: Robbie Hummel didn’t play cause of the back injury and the offense just isn’t as fluid without him on the floor. They had the shot to win in regulation though.

Mr. T: Hummel isn’t the reason OSU shot 60% though. It looks like Moore sucked. And your boy Lou Jack (Louis Jackson) couldn’t hit down the stretch.

Lafayette Gold: Hummel’s our best player and we still almost won. Ohio State sucks. They were making all these long bomb three-pointers they wouldn’t normally make. Jackson was the only person who wanted the ball. Moore was struggling and didn’t seem to want the responsibility.

Mr. T: 60% shooting! Hummel’s not your best defender, so he can’t be the excuse. Matt Painter would tell you 60% is embarrassing. Purdue is supposed to be a defensive team.

Lafayette Gold: Ok, I’ll give you that. The key might be to rest Hummel for an extended period of time because his back won’t heal if he doesn’t sit. JaJuan Johnson is really improving his game offensively. If Hummel comes back in time for the Big Ten tournament and Johnson keeps improving, this team can definitely get to the Sweet 16 and possibly the Elite Eight. The Final Four is probably a pipe dream this year, but they’re youth makes it a consideration in the future. I doubt any of these guys will leave early.
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The Titanic is Sinking

It's rough times over at Rise and Fire with Mr. T's fund. Despite feeling confidence in last night's Purdue pick, I was uninformed before tip-off that Robbie Hummel wasn't going to be playing. It's not that I wasn't researched enough to find the information, it just wasn't released until right before gametime that he has a crack in one of his vertebrae. UNLV, on the other hand, blew a small lead in the final minutes, leading to a poor showing for Mr. T

Tonight's a night where the newly mastered three unit system was meant to come into play. Wake Forest has lost two of their last three games and they had down to Miami tonight. Wake Forest -2.5 @ Miami stares me right in the face as a three unit proposition because there's no way Wake is losing back to back games, let alone three out of four. This is a team that's a Final Four contender, going against a Miami team that hasn't recovered from an early non-conference game against Ohio State. I like Dino Gaudio and I'm putting my faith in him. For my second pick, I'll place one unit on Tennessee -4 @ Arkansas. Arkansas is another team on a tail spin and I expect Tennessee to use Saturday's thrashing of Florida as a trampoline. If I lose both games tonight, I truly plan on reevaluating my outlook on home court advantage because that's where I feel I've been burned so far.


Record: 13-18
Bank: $168.65

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Two for Tuesday

I'm in a rush so no pomp and circumstance with these picks. I like Purdue -2 @ Ohio State (2 units) and UNLV -5 vs. New Mexico St. (1 unit). I need to regain form and as you can see we've adjusted our fund to take into account my confidence in each pick.

Record: 13-15
Bank: $183.65

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and puts $5 of action on every game he picks.


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What to Watch for: 2/2 – 2/8

Big Monday kicks the week off with a bang as it showcases a contest between Big East behemoths. Connecticut heads to Louisville, arguably the hottest team in the country right now. Louisville has shown no fear this year, taking down all four ranked opponents. UConn will have to rely on their superior guard play to take home the victory.

Minnesota has been respectable on the road this year, losing only one game in five contests. Michigan State welcomes the Gophers on Wednesday night, fresh off a disappointing home loss to Penn State. Minnesota's tough defense might force the careless Spartans to turn the ball over, so it'll be up to the young Kalin Lucas to bounce back with a better effort.

Last year Duke struggled with Clemson's athleticism and full court press. They'll face the demons again on Wednesday as they head back into the Littlejohn Coliseum. Clemson brings a lot of the same factors Wake Forest used to upend Duke, so the Blue Devils have to be at their best.

I'm also intrigued with a third game from Wednesday's schedule. Missouri has been somewhat erratic, but they can score with the best of them. Needing to prove some road toughness with a young backcourt, they'll need to show some moxy against the Texas Longhorns.

Syracuse needs to start amassing some quality road wins and their trip to Philadelphia presents an interesting opportunity on Saturday. Villanova's strengths play into the style of the Orangemen. They should be able to handle the up-tempo affair and the Syracuse bigs won't have much an issue asserting their physical advantage.

Gonzaga & Memphis need resume wins since they play in a non-power conferences. With Memphis making the trip out west to Spokane on Saturday, Gonzaga will hold the crowd advantage to go along with their experience. They have much more to lose from this game than do the Tigers.

Washington did a respectable job last weekend with a split in the state of Arizona. On Saturday night they'll face Stanford after visiting California on Thursday night. If they can manage a sweep of Northern California, it'll lead them on their way to contending for the Pac Ten title.
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