Final Four Time

Sadly we only have three games left in the season, but emotions should be positive on Final Four Saturday. UNC is the favorite to win it all and everyone's pushing for the UConn vs. UNC final. I don't see things being any different unfortunately, but anything could happen and if I had to pick one, it'll be Villanova. All plays are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Connecticut -4.5 vs. Michigan St. (Two units)
Villanova +7 vs. North Carolina

Record: 90-91 on units (73-73-1 on selections)
Bank: $160.32

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Midweek Fill

There are two obvious statements to make at this point in the season. There's a six-day period before the next game in the NCAA Tournament and we've only got 3 NCAA Tournament games yet to play. Put those together and we've got a nice set of NIT games to play tonight. All plays are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Notre Dame -4 vs. Penn State
San Diego St. +1 vs. Baylor

Record: 90-89 on units (73-71-1 on selections)
Bank: $170.32

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Boom Goes Sooner

In the middle of fantasy baseball draft paradise, there's no analysis like yesterday. Instead we're fading Oklahoma with two units on UNC -7 today. Carolina is deep, Oklahoma is not. Carolina has Ty Lawson, Oklahoma does not. Carolina has four guys to throw at Blake Griffin, Oklahoma isn't deep. UNC is roling and I don't see Oklahoma getting in their way. Besides, do we really think Crocker is gonna go nuts from outside again?

Record: 88-89 on units (72-71-1 on selections)
Bank: $161.22

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Is All Hope Lost?

I didn't get a chance to touch on it yesterday, but Memphis' loss to Missouri was incredibly heartbreaking for Rise and Fire's leader. I had Memphis winning my main bracket in five of six pools, a nice futures bet on them at 30-1 from January, and the other futures listed as fund plays. I've got slim chances of winning money in those pools now with that bracket, but a good chance at winning other pools with secondary entries.

Missouri's aggressive defense was never going to be an easy task for Memphis, but the way Missouri's offense cut up the formidable Memphis defense was the real killer. You have to tip your hat to Missouri for playing about as well as they could have. In another Sweet 16 games, Gonzaga fell flat on their face as expected. They were never a blog favorite and proved why in last night's embarrassment. The quality of the Sweet 16 games as a whole haven't been that high. Only two games have been competitive and numerous teams put in a disappointing effort.

In Saturday's first Elite 8 contest Connecticut will look to ride the dominant wave that has carried them so far. Missouri's press shouldn't affect UConn as much as it affected Memphis because the Huskies have three natural ball handlers in Price, Walker, and Austrie. Robinson can help out as well which is why I like UConn -5.5 vs. Missouri. The second game presents a Big East slugfest between Villanova and Pittsburgh. Nova has been playing over their heads a bit as I expected them to win, but not be this dominant. Pitt needs to get scoring from other players besides the big three of Fields, Young, and Blair and I expect they will as I play one unit on Pittsburgh -2 vs. Villanova.

Record: 87-88 on units (71-70-1 on selections)
Bank: $161.67

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.


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Sweet 16 Friday Quick Picks

It's a quick stop between work and the bar for the games, but here's what we're going with tonight. Picks are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Syracuse +1 vs. Oklahoma
North Carolina -7.5 vs. Gonzaga (Two units)
Michigan St. -1.5 vs. Kansas

Record: 84-87 on units (69-69-1 on selections)
Bank: $152.38

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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The Longest 96 Hours

I started jonesing the minute Louisville wrapped things up against Siena. 96 hours later, we've finally returned for more basketball. I got the sour taste of Arizona State out of my mouth with a strong finish to the weekend. While tonight only carries four games for betting purposes, the quality of the actual games should be far superior to anything we've seen so far. All picks are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Purdue +6.5 vs. Connecticut
Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. Xavier
Villanova ML (+115) vs. Duke (Two units)

Adding:
Pittsburgh -6.5 2nd half vs. Xavier (Two units)

Still floating:
Pac 10 Team wins over 6.5 +110
Memphis more wins thank Duke -150 (Three units)
Memphis to make Final Four +250 (Three units)

Record: 80-81 on units (67-65-1 on selections)
Bank: $161.78

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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James Harden was Paid Off

I've had 48 hours to calm down, but the feelings are still very strong. Something happened that caused James Harden to play like an NBDL player over the last weeks of his NCAA career. Harden is supposed to be a top five pick in this year's NBA draft, but you wouldn't know it if you only caught the last three games of Arizona State's season.

Let's start with Saturday, March 14th when ASU took on USC in the Pac-10 final. The Sun Devils were sitting on a comfortable 15-point half time lead and all looked well. USC came out with a second half press that threw off ASU's typically methodical offense. Whether it was PG Derek Glasser's lack of confidence or coach Herb Sendek's direction, James Harden started bringing the ball up the floor. With a couple well placed turnovers here and poor shots there, USC was on their way to an epic comeback. The game rested in the balance when Harden twice took the ball to the basket, leading to one off-balanced layup attempt and one offensive foul. Who knew I'd be calling for some of that aggression a week later, but we'll get to that. Harden's blunders were too much for his teammates to overcome, but it's hard to do anything when your best player decides to be the selfish aggressor. Maybe Harden was attempting to compensate for his measly nine points in his team's biggest game of the season to date. Maybe he was trying to get to the line more than his two previous attempts, a number which was his second lowest since January. Or maybe there was another reason...

Harden's 1 for 8 shooting against Temple in the first round of the NCAA Tournament was inconsequential because it was only Temple and the Sun Devils controlled most of the game. The second round game against Syracuse, however, was not a game ASU could afford Harden to be absent from. Yet at halftime, the Sun Devils were down nine points and there sat James Harden with a first half bagel. Four shots were all Harden took in the first half, all from the same spot at the top of the circle. How could a player known for his slick drives to the basket be relegated to jump shots from the perimeter? Should a coach have to remind his best player, the top five draft pick, that he might be playing in his last college game? I think not. Everyone knows ASU's fate rested in the hands of their best player, except Small Game James looked as if he had partied too hard in South Beach the night before. Or maybe there was another reason...

Some may call me bitter, but I'm actually going to go as far as to say that I'm stupid. I pride myself on the "eye test" with teams and ASU failed miserably in that category when I watched them in the second half of the Pac-10 final. ASU had looked sharp at multiple points in the season, but that second half screamed out for the team to be devalued. My memory was too short when a couple days later I advanced them to the Elite Eight in my bracket. The efficiency numbers were good, the opponents in their region weren't as strong as the opponents for other #6 seeds in other regions, and they should've been motivated after the Pac-10 disappointment. This was a team was poised to make a run with their effective zone defense, proficient three-point shooting, and Wooden Award candidate. Unfortunately they ran into a Syracuse team that was playing too well to be defeated. Or maybe there was another reason...

James Harden was paid off.
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The Best Seven Hours on TV

Maybe it's a little bit of a stretch, but it's hard to argue that today marks a great seven hours of college basketball. The four game slate between 2:20pm and 5:00pm is going to be frantic and exhilerating to watch. I'm still shaping up well in the bracket pools, but there's a lot riding on Arizona St. today. All picks are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Arizona St. +2.5 vs. Syracuse (Two units)
Xavier -3 vs. Wisconsin (Two units)
Louisville -11.5 vs. Siena
Missouri -3 vs. Marquette (Two units)
Kansas -8 vs. Dayton
Oklahoma St. +9.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Added:
Pittsburgh/OSU Under 82 in 2nd Half (Two units)

Record: 73-78 on units (62-63-1 on selections)
Bank: $144.93

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.




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Brackets Don't Equal Bets

After the first two days of the NCAA tournament, I sit at 26/32 and in good position in the pool standings. It's probably the best position I've been in after the first day in years. Yet, despite this good work on the bracket, the bets don't seem to be falling. There's still plenty of time left in the tournament, but it'd be nice to have a day where I went on a little run. It's not like we're in the middle of February. Eventually the fund will need to overcome the vig. Games are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Villanova -2.5 vs. UCLA
Memphis -9 vs. Maryland (Two units)
LSU +11.5 vs. UNC
Michigan +7.5 vs. Oklahoma (Two units)
Purdue +1.5 vs. Washington

Record: 69-75 on units (59-61-1 on selections)
Bank: $141.73

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.


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Freaky Friday?

Despite yesterday being the first day of March Madness, there wasn't much madness to be seen. The only real upsets (excluding 8/9 matchups because it's usually a coin flip) were Michigan/Clemson and WKU/Illinois and those weren't exactly jaw dropping. Last year's first day brought the same result with the only upset being USC over Kansas St., but that wasn't jaw dropping either. Then on Friday the sky fell with Davidson over Gonzaga, Western Kentucky over Drake, San Diego over Connecticut, Siena over Vanderbilt, and Villanova over Clemson. Will the same thing happen today? Gus Johnson is broadcasting the games in Minnesota, so look for NDSU, Dayton, USC, or Robert Morris to pull an upset in the Twin Cities.

Today's picks are below and are one unit plays unless otherwise dictated.

Marquette -4.5 vs. Utah State (Two units)
North Dakota St. +10 vs. Kansas (Three units)
Ohio St. -3.5 vs. Siena (Two units)
USC -2.5 vs. Boston College (Two units)
Wisconsin +2.5 vs. Florida St.
West Virginia -9 vs. Dayton
Oklahoma St. +2 vs. Tennessee

Added:
Arizona +105 ML vs. Utah (to win two units - covering the MWC wins bet)

Record: 64-69 on units (55-57 on selections)
Bank: $147.69

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Explaining My Bracket

Now that it is 12:01pm and all bracket entries are locked, I will explain the selections for my bracket. Yes, that might make me look like an ass because I didn’t want to reveal everything, but if you’ve read the blog all year my thoughts should be pretty evident. I’ll break down some selection thoughts by region and then give a Final Four summary. I preface all the commentary by saying a few words. I’ve watched more college basketball this year than ever before. If you ask me about most teams in this tournament, I’ll be able to give you a summary. I won last year’s pool, which reinforced my knowledge I was able to amass. I won not cause of the luck of the four #1 seeds, but because I was strong enough early on and I saw something in Kansas that few others saw. I feel good about my opinions on the bracket, but it’s March and that means anything can happen.

East Region:
I’ve liked Pitt all year, so my choice of them should be pretty obvious. Villanova has the ability to take advantage of Duke’s weaknesses. Nova attacks the rim, hits the offensive boards hard, and can drain threes. Duke will get to the Sweet 16 without issues because neither Texas nor Minnesota is a threat. The pick of Xavier to the Sweet 16 is about being risk averse since FSU/Wisconsin is a toss-up. I chose Wisconsin in that game because I think their slow offensive style and defensive effort will frustrate FSU. Oklahoma St. should beat Tennessee because they’re similar teams with OSU being able to hit threes. Texas beats Minnesota because Minnesota isn’t the same team away from home and they have trouble scoring.

South Region:
I was really hoping for better talent in this bracket. In my opinion, it holds the weakest #2, #3, #4, and #5 seeds. UNC should stroll to the Final Four assuming Ty Lawson has half a toe. The real question is: who will they face to get there? I see Clemson posing a threat to Oklahoma because Missouri showed Oklahoma struggles against the press. I’m taking a shot with Clemson because they could fall to the slow pace of Michigan in the first round, but you need to take some chances. I have Syracuse losing to Arizona St. because I think ASU’s zone and methodical offense will keep the game at a slow pace, which favors them. The real painful decision was ASU over Clemson because I watched ASU completely self-destruct against USC’s pressing defense in the Pac 10 final. That pick is more about ASU having a better chance not to lose. WKU should beat an Illinois team without Frazier. LSU/Butler is a tossup and I’m taking the best player on the floor in Marcus Thornton.

Midwest Region:
Louisville has a pretty easy ride. The only team I see challenging them is Wake Forest, but Wake has shown the tendency to fall asleep. I went with the risk averse selection (notice a pattern yet?). Siena might’ve played a bunch of teams in non-conference play, but they didn’t beat any of them, so I took Ohio St. Arizona might not deserve to be in, but now that they are, they have three very talented dudes who might be too much for Utah. You should know my thoughts on West Virginia by now. I wish the bottom half had a stronger team, but I went with Michigan St. because they have the easier road to travel and more experience than Kansas.

West Region:
Connecticut is the most vulnerable #1 seed. With that in mind, this is my only non-chalk Final Four selection. The Memphis Tigers should be no surprise because I’ve been high on them since they trounced Gonzaga. Both Purdue and Washington could be upset in the first round, so I went with Purdue to the Sweet 16 because I think they have less chance of being upset and better perimeter play than Washington. Missouri will struggle running half-court sets against Memphis’ #1 defense. I’m 90% certain that Marquette won’t crap the bed in the first round because of their senior leadership. California and BYU have too much perimeter game for their opponents in round one.

Final Four:
This is where the rubber hits the road. I went with the two teams in the final who I’ve been backing for the last two months. Louisville’s guard play should catch up to them eventually and I don’t like Carolina’s mental makeup or coaching. Memphis takes home the title because they have the athletes to compete with Blair and Young. Fields will struggle with the quicker and stronger Evans. Memphis takes home the title and makes Mr. T a defending champion.

At least that’s how I dreamt it up last night. Let’s play ball!
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My Religion's Christmas

Quick picks for the first day of the tournament. I'll get the overall #s up later. All picks are worth one unit unless otherwise stated.

BYU -2 vs. Texas A&M
California -1.5 vs. Maryland (Two units)
VCU +8 vs. UCLA
Western Kentucky +5 vs. Illinois
MWC Team wins over 1.5 +170 (Two units)
Pac 10 Team wins over 6.5 +110
Memphis more wins thank Duke -150 (Three units)
Memphis to make Final Four +250 (Three units)

Record: 62-66 on units (53-55 on selections)
Bank: $153.59

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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West Region Preview

As we approach the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, Mr. T will preview one region each day.

The Favorite: Connecticut - UConn was cruising on its way to the Final Four until Jerome Dyson broke his foot and the Huskies have been 4-3 in his absence. UConn's strength is on the interior, unless they're playing Pitt, which wouldn't happen until the title game. Thabeet, Adrien, and Robinson will step to anyone. A.J. Price is frothing at the mouth to make up for the torn ACL that killed UConn's hopes last year. There are few lead guards better at getting their shots than that guy. Dyson's injury has weakened the perimeter defense, which in turn leads to more drives and more fouls in the frontcourt. Lacking the three-point shooter of successful teams past, UConn will have to hope the magic of Arizona brings them out of the regional as it did in '99 and '04.

The Main Challenger: Memphis – After stumbling through non-conference play, Memphis moved Tyreke Evans to the point and has never looked back. While not a prototypical PG, Evans has a strong handle of the ball and has shown good decision making thus far. Despite playing in a weak conference, Memphis showed their prowess in an 18-point demolishing of Gonzaga in a semi-road game. Their athletes are as good as any team in the country and there's still a lot of talent despite losing Rose and Douglas-Roberts from last year's team. During the last three years people have knocked Memphis for playing in a weak conference and all three years they've advanced to at least the Elite Eight. Why should this year be any different?

The Sleeper: Purdue - With Robbie Hummel finally healthy, Purdue looks like the top 10 team they were assumed to be in the preseason. While the point guard play is a notch below high quality levels, the other pieces on the court are talented. JaJuan Johnson has come into his own as an interior presence, Robbie Hummel has a wide ranging skill set, and the guards can all shoot and defend. Beating UConn won't be an easy task, but they couldn't ask for a more vulnerable #1 seed.

First Round Upset: Mississippi State - I'm not sure I see a first round upset in this region, but MSU has the best chance. A team that was expected to contend for the SEC this year is playing with loads of confidence after winning the SEC Tournament. Varnado protects the inside with four gunners around him. Washington has a young point guard in Isaiah Thomas, who might not be able to handle the bright lights.
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Midwest Region Preview

As we approach the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, Mr. T will preview one region each day.

The Favorite: Louisville - As Louisville started piling up wins in conference play, they were continually discredited because of their lack of guard play. Now that they've won both the Big East regular season and tournament, no one seems to care and for good reason. Louisville's pressing defense will wear you down, especially in the second game in three days. None of the guards will wow you, but they rotate enough guys for someone to be effective on a given night. The strength is at forward with the senior Williams doing everything the team needs on a given night. They're not the best foul shooting team, so remember how that did in Memphis last year. Louisville was ranked third in the preseason AP poll and they've finally worked out the kinks in rising to the #1 spot in the country. Did they peak too early?

The Main Challenger: Michigan State – Tom Izzo coached teams deserve respect and these Spartans are no different. On paper, their team has all the pieces for a Final Four run. They've got the explosive point guard who can score and distribute, they rebound well, and their offense isn't reliant on only one or two players. But can you take a team seriously if they lost by 25 to UNC early on in a semi-home game? MSU has a tendency to drift from their offensive game plan, which involves playing inside out, on many occasions, although Izzo should have them more focused at this time of year. They're flying under the radar now and that's when MSU has done better in recent years.

The Sleeper: Wake Forest - Wins over UNC, BYU, and Duke prove that Wake Forest has the ability to beat anyone. Their one major weakness is three-point shooting, as they don't have a hired gun on the roster. Zone defenses could prove to be an issue, but Louisville's zone comes with a full court press in front of it. Wake's shown they can beat a press with their two wins against Clemson. Aminu and Johnson give the Demon Deacons extra ball handlers at the forward spots. Jeff Teague likes a challenge and has shown he can take over a game.

First Round Upset: North Dakota State - While I like NDSU more from a betting perspective than a bracket perspective, the thought of them pulling off an upset against a young Kansas team isn't unrealistic. The Bison start four seniors, can make threes, and is good from the foul line. Bill Self is not the best Xs and Ox coach and his teams have had disastrous first rounds previously. Last year's National Championship might be more a product of the upperclassmen leadership than coaching.
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South Region Preview

As we approach the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, Mr. T will preview one region each day.

The Favorite: North Carolina - Who knew that a toe could determine whether or not a team wins the national championship? Ty Lawson's toe injury is the biggest injury-related story of this year's tournament because he's the straw that stirs the drink for North Carolina. Without Lawson in the ACC Tournament, North Carolina was unable to play at their usual high pace in transition. They also lacked Lawson's leadership and penetration ability with the game on the line. If Lawson is anything other than 100%, UNC's chances for a national title take a major hit. For what it's worth, Greg Anthony thinks it'll be tougher for Lawson to cut on an ill-feeling toe. As far as their opponents go, UNC got a relatively easy bracket.

The Main Challenger: Oklahoma – The Blake Griffin led Sooners have to be a little disappointed with their seeding. Before Griffin's concussion, the Sooners looked like they were sitting pretty with a #1 seed in their sights. They've suffered two losses in their last three games and suddenly look a little less formidable. The difference in seeding becomes apparent with the possible second round matchup against Clemson. Clemson has the athletes and pressing style that could cause Oklahoma trouble. If they can get through that, the Elite Eight will still be tough to come by. They'll have to ramp things up on the defensive end to even get to a projected matchup against North Carolina.

The Sleeper: Arizona State - I'm still getting over the ASU letdown in the second half of Saturday's Pac 10 final against USC. USC turned up the defensive pressure by running a full court press and the Sun Devils fell apart. James Harden looked more like a bashful freshman than the cool sophomore we've grown to love. Will ASU recover? Their zone defense should help them control the pace of games and they've got enough offensive weapons to make a run if they don't get rattled.

First Round Upset: Western Kentucky – Most people should remember Western Kentucky's miracle shot to beat Drake in the 1st round. Those memories will lead to this predicted upset in a lot of brackets, but the reality is there to fulfill the dream. Illinois showed against Purdue how dysfunctional they become when Chester Frazier isn't on the floor. While WKU doesn't have Courtney Lee anymore, they have many players returning from last year's team and a resume win over Louisville to prove their legitimacy.
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East Region Preview

As we approach the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, Mr. T will preview one region each day.

The Favorite: Pittsburgh – The Panthers have been one of my favorite teams to watch all year. They play a consummate team game, they hit the boards hard, and they have three guys (Fields, Young, and Blair) who are reliable when the game is on the line. They lack a genuine outside shooter, but there are plenty of players who have the ability to shoot from outside. Don’t get worried about the loss to West Virginia. I’m convinced they didn’t give 100% because their eyes are on the national tournament title and not the Big East tournament title this year. Their trip to Detroit will only be derailed if the opponent manages to get DeJuan Blair in foul trouble. Villanova was able to do it once before, can they do it again?

The Main Challenger: Villanova – Nova fell flat on their face in the second half of Friday’s contest with Louisville. They shouldn’t feel too bad because that’s happened to everyone Louisville has taken on in the last two months. The Wildcats have the benefit of playing two home games in Philly before a possible matchup with a Duke team that’s known to be a little soft. That’s just how Jay Wright’s team likes em.

The Sleeper: UCLA – The East shapes up as a pretty weak bracket with not too many teams that I’m in favor of. Is it possible to call a team that has made four straight Final Fours a sleeper? The Bruins have tournament experience and as good a coach as there is out there. If they can beat Nova, in what amounts to a semi-road game, and Duke, wouldn’t that matchup between Howland and his former team be quite newsworthy?

First Round Upset: Portland State – Xavier has only won half of its last ten games and Portland State has the resume win of Gonzaga on the road. I’m not sure I’m fully on board, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled it off.
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Treading Water

There's nothing like betting 11 games over the course of the day and seeing the results split down the middle heading into the last game. I went to bed late, woke up early, and want nothing to do other than lay on my couch and enjoy basketball today. For those reasons, here's another set of quick picks that may or may not be added to as the day goes on. As always, bets are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Auburn +4 vs. Tennessee
Ohio St. +8 vs. Michigan St.
Missouri -5 vs. Baylor (Two units)
LSU -3.5 vs. Mississippi St. (Two units)
Arizona St. -1.5 vs. USC
Memphis -14.5 vs. Tulsa (Two units)
Purdue -3.5 vs. Illinois

Record: 56-62 on units (49-52 on selections)
Bank: $146.29

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Too Much Chalk

After getting excited about all the chalk in the Big East Tournament yesterday, we saw a couple of upsets and Marquette almost grabbed a third. Because of that it was a poor day for the fund. I've definitely found myself taking too many favorites lately, which basically equates me to Joe Public. I'm gonna try to look for some value in underdogs for later games, but right now I'm getting up the early day picks. Consider this post to be everchanging as it will be updated throughout the day with bets. All bets are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

LSU -1 vs. Kentucky
Wisconsin -2.5 vs. Ohio State
Auburn +3.5 vs. Florida
UCLA -6 vs. USC (Two units)
Purdue -7 vs. Penn State
West Virginia -6.5 vs. Syracuse (Two units)
Arizona State -0 vs. Washington (Two units)
Xavier -4.5 vs. Temple
Villanova +4.5 vs. Louisville
Missouri -4.5 vs. Oklahoma St.
Michigan +2.5 vs. Illinois


Record: 51-55 on units (44-46 on selections)
Bank: $157.49

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Straight Chalk

So far we've seen straight chalk in the Big East Tournament. All top eight seeds advanced to the quaterfinals (though some got the double bye into that round). One of those chalk wins came from Syracuse last night. As we've talked about before, Syracuse has the ability to run as well as any team in the country. Seton Hall couldn't impart any kind of their own style on Syracuse. They're too undisciplined. Add in some energy after the melee in the second half and Syracuse went charging ahead. Mr. T was happy to see his two unit fund selection be successful.

Today we're shooting for the stars with another busy day of conference tournament play. It's three units on Connecticut -4.5 vs. Syracuse. UConn will not let Cuse run. Also we like one unit on Villanova -2.5 vs. Marquette, Washington -5.5 vs. Stanford, and Oklahoma -4.5 vs. Oklahoma State.

Record: 50-51 on units (43-43 on selections)
Bank: $172.44

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Hump Day Two Pack

As we dip into the heart of Championship Week, it's time to dip back into the betting process. It's quick picks today because we're in a rush.

Syracuse -6.5 vs. Seton Hall (Two units)
St. Joseph's -2.5 vs. Charlotte (One unit)

Record: 47-51 on units (41-43 on selections)
Bank: $158.79

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Not So Big Monday

It's an odd day when we finally hit a Monday in which there's no Big East or Big 12game to wager on. You gotta find the action somewhere, so we looked at some of the conference tournament games being played tonight. I like St. Mary's +7.5 vs. Gonzaga for one unit because if you watched the last game they played, you wouldn't think any other way. Until Patty Mills got hurt in that game, the Gaels were flying high. They'll take what they've learned without him, plus the added motivation of a NCAA Tournament guarantee. I'm also not as high on Gonzaga as some others out there.

For the smell of it, I'll add one unit on College of Charleston -3 vs. Tennessee-Chattanooga. There seems to be way too much public action behind it, so maybe the contrarians will win this battle. I'm backing the team that looks the best on the court and it helps that they won easily at Chattanooga because this isn't as neutral a game as you'd thinkg being played in Chattanooga.

Record: 47-49 on units (41-41 on selections)
Bank: $168.79

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Show Me Something

With a busy weekend on my schedule, I wasn’t able to get in as much game watching as I would’ve liked. I followed scores religiously, as always, but I was still able to catch a few key games from the weekend. Instead of the usual weekend quick fire ideas, here are my thoughts from the three games I caught in full.

I’ve been harping all year on West Virginia’s need to impress me. Despite being #9 in the Pomeroy rankings, Saturday night showed their true colors. WVU has now lost to Connecticut, Pittsburgh, and Louisville (twice). Their best conference road win is Georgetown; a team we all know is having a poor season. Despite all this, I saw some flashes of talent from the Mountaineers last night. Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones are nice players. They have athleticism, height, good basketball sense and have progressed dramatically in their freshman season. It’s a shame Joe Mazzulla got hurt because we’ll never know how good this WVU team could’ve been. Darryl Bryant shrank in the bright lights and we won’t even get into Alex Ruoff’s best reenactment of Stevin Smith. Assuming WVU gets to a second Big East tournament game, they’ll need to win that to earn my respect.

On the Louisville side, the questionable guard play will always prevent me from having them go far. Add in Earl Clark’s ability to waste his natural talent from time to time and you’d think I’d be anti-Cardinals. Despite all this, Louisville still delivers on most nights. Terrence Williams gets everything done on the floor and the rest of the players do enough to get Louisville the Ws. Give Louisville credit for going 16-2 in the Big East. Even with the unbalance schedule, it’s not easy to do.

Duke and North Carolina squared off and the result wasn’t a surprise. Whenever Duke made a run in the second half, Carolina built their lead right back up. Duke couldn’t keep Lawson out of the lane and they couldn’t keep the Tar Heels off the offensive boards when it mattered. It was a valiant effort for the Dukies, but I’ll once again point out that you’re not winning any games when the opponents shoot over 50%. Carolina still seems to be lacking something. I could see them losing before making it to Detroit.

Finally we have the Clemson vs. Wake Forest affair. The analysis boils down to the second half where Clemson’s brightest stars disappeared. Besides not being able to stop Wake’s offense, Clemson’s offensive didn’t find Booker enough down low as the game went on. When he doesn’t see enough of the ball, the defense doesn’t sink into the paint, so Rivers and Oglesby don’t get as many open looks. Rivers and Booker seemed to float around the floor, not looking for the ball. Wake’s size probably threw them off their game. You want to think Clemson has a run in them, but when they always crumble at this time of year it’s hard to back them.

Wake Forest made their run by pushing the ball off misses and turnovers. Ishmael Smith did a phenomenal job while Jeff Teague was in foul trouble. The Demon Deacons were able to dominate the defensive boards and make a delightful 80% of their foul shots. They seem to have righted the ship after a mid-season stumble, but they’ll need to make the ACC conference finals to prove their back for good.
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The End of Regularity

Today marks the end of college basketball's regular season. It'd be a sad day if not for championship week and the tournament that follows. I almost passed on all the action, but I had a late desire for some action.

In keeping with the home favorite and road dog theory, today we go with two more home favorites for one unit a piece. Ohio State should take advantage of the home crowd and a Northwestern team who might be overvalued after the Purdue upset. Ohio State -5.5 is the play there. I also like Wake Forest -5 vs. Clemson. Aminu and Johnson both handle the ball well, which helps the Demon Deacons break the Clemson press.

Record: 46-48 on units (40-40 on selections)
Bank: $169.24

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Six Pack Saturday

After last night's title didn't deliver a heavy betting card (but it did deliver a win), we live up to this post's title. Not only are we rolling with six picks for Saturday, it's also Hoboken St. Patty's Day. All of that means less analysis from this guy as he runs out the door. And yes it's all favorites, but if favorites do cover some games, these could be the ones. Here are the selections for one unit unless otherwise displayed:

West Virginia -2.5 vs. Louisville
Kansas -8.5 vs. Texas (Two units)
South Carolina -5.5 @ Georgia
Florida -5.5 vs. Kentucky
Georgetown -16 vs. Depaul
Marquette -5 vs. Syracuse

Record: 42-45 on units (37-37 on selections)
Bank: $166.04

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.


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Five for Friday

I wish there was enough on the card where I could throw out five selections for Friday, but unless you follow the Ivy Leagues, that's not possible. I'm just happy to see one major conference game on the schedule.

I'll take one unit on Notre Dame -11.5 vs. St. John's. Sure it's Senior Night and all that jazz, but that's not the issue here. The issue we're dealing with is a young St. John's that's riding a rocky mountain high. They just won a landmark game for Norm Roberts (coming back from 15 points to beat Georgetown in OT) that might save his job. It's time for the letdown. To make matters worse, St. John's is 27th in the country at guarding the three-pointer and they have no bulk to guard Harangody. Oops!

Record: 41-45 on units (36-37 on selections)
Bank: $161.49

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Happy Hump Day

Tonight has the same premise as last night. It's all road dogs and home favorites until I run into the brick wall. It's one unit on the following picks:

Seton Hall +16 @ Louisville
Marquette +10.5 @ Pittsburgh
Wisconsin +1.5 @ Minnesota
Missouri -4 vs. Oklahoma

Record: 40-42 on units (35-34 on selections)
Bank: $171.94

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Run, Run, Run

Syracuse is a far superior team when the push the tempo. The problem lies in that their 2-3 zone isn't aggressive enough to generate turnovers to consistently increase the pace of the game. Syracuse played a dismal first half against Rutgers last night and trailed 20-19. They slowly put their foot on the gas in the second half and were aided by lackluster shooting from the Scarlet Knights. As Rutgers kept missing, Syracuse kept pushing the ball, leading to layups and three-pointers in transition. They better pray to not face teams from the Big Ten in the NCAA tournament because a slow it down affair is not good for their offense.

Villanova is another team that excels in transition. During the first half against Notre Dame on Monday, the half-court offense looked a little stagnant and the Nova big men were taking shots a few feet outside their range. In the second half, they played more in transition. Scottie Reynolds was better than he had been in recent games, attacking the defense at every opportunity. The one alarming aspect of the game for Villanova was their propensity to consistently leave Ryan Ayers open at the three-point line. Once the guy makes 3 or 4 of em, let's close out the shooter!

Finally, I offer one comment from the Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State affair from last night. I doubt Kansas State is making the tournament at this point, but Oklahoma State isn't impressive either. They've got some athletes, but their prone to long droughts on offense. They got gifted the game with some poor defense and shot selection by the Wildcats.
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Trying Something New

I've come up with a new idea and this one might actually work. It also may not, but I'm always about analyzing what's going on. During my recent successful stretch, I've been best at predicting road dogs and home favorites. For tonight's card, I'm rolling with one unit on the following plays with that premise in mind.

Clemson -15 vs. Virginia
Kansas State +5.5 @ Oklahoma State
Florida State +12 @ Duke
Syracuse -15.5 vs. Rutgers

Record: 37-41 on units (32-33 on selections)
Bank: $163.29

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.


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Champagne Super-Nova

After having a slightly positive Saturday, I took Sunday off. There were no games on the card that really tickled my fancy. I still continued to make my picks for the Wagerline.com free office pools and somehow managed to pull off a 4-2 record on my pick 6.

Tonight we’ll take a more active approach despite the small card. The pick of Villanova +3 @ Notre Dame for one unit is somehow an anti-public play. Notre Dame is getting respect after valiantly fighting to save their season and showing they could hang with Connecticut. I still think Villanova is the far superior team with stronger leadership, a more diverse offense, better rebounding, and a tenancious defense.

Record: 36-41 on units (31-33 on selections)
Bank: $158.74

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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What to Watch for: 3/2 – 3/8

Just because you need something to watch on Big Monday, we’ll offer up Villanova’s trip to Notre Dame. Notre Dame’s need for the win can’t be understated with their tournament dreams still on the line.

Duke always struggles with athletes and they’ll get another chance to prove otherwise on Tuesday against Florida State, who beat Clemson on the road and came close at Carolina.

Marquette hasn’t fared well in both opportunities without Dominic James (including the Connecticut game where he barely played) and the schedule doesn’t get any easier with a journey to Pittsburgh, who hasn’t lost at home all year.

Blake Griffin seemed back to old form in Oklahoma’s last game and they’ll need him at 100% if they hope to beat Missouri on Wednesday night. Missouri should be angry after being embarrassed on national TV by Kansas.

Connecticut @ Pittsburgh at 12pm on Saturday requires no summary if you saw the first affair.

Kentucky faces Florida in what possibly amounts to a loser goes home situation on Saturday.

California hasn’t been a formidable road squad, which is a plus for Arizona State in Saturday’s battle.. ASU need to get the train back on the tracks after getting swept in the state of Washington.

Syracuse might be able to take advantage of a Marquette team whose confidence has been knocked down a few pegs. The Orangemen could use some road credibility.

West Virginia has no road credibility either, but that won’t be the question on Saturday night. Louisville is rolling like a freight train, but it could get derailed in Morgantown.

Duke vs. Carolina highlights Sunday’s card, but Purdue vs. Michigan and Clemson vs. Wake Forest need no explanation to watch either.
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Crunch Time

It was a busy weekend in the world of Mr. T, but that didn’t stop him from catching some hoops over the weekend. Now is the time to get hot and we saw a few teams on their way this weekend.

• Villanova’s possessions over the last few minutes were highly alarming. The smarts that were there in previous weeks didn’t show as Reynolds and Fisher allowed the team’s offense to run too loosely. When you’re down three with over 20 seconds to go, you don’t need to chuck up off-balanced three-pointers.
• Connecticut survived a tough one against Notre Dame on Saturday. The Fighting Irish have played the Huskies tough in recent years and this time was no different. The Huskies, however, got lucky with poor Notre Dame offensive execution and a Thabeet injury that led to Austrie taking foul shots.
• It’s nice to see Duke win close games on the road, but Jon Scheyer did walk. The Blue Devils could’ve done a better job of making their free throws late.
• If you don’t know LSU’s Marcus Thornton, you probably will in three weeks.
• Jerel McNeil won’t shoot worse than 3-19 the rest of the season, so Louisville should consider themselves lucky in beating Marquette by four despite another underwhelming performance by the backcourt.
• Kansas is young, but they are talented. The leadership of Collins brings them a long way and they have as many talented players are any other school. Beware of this bunch.
• Missouri got surprisingly ambushed by the Jayhawks despite their four upperclassmen starters. Were they possibly too emotional for this encounter?/li>

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Quickfire Saturday Selections

With a full day going on for Mr. T, here are the five plays for today worth one unit a piece:

Villanova -6 vs. Georgetown
Texas A&M -10.5 vs. Iowa State
Washington -8 vs. Arizona
BYU -6 vs. Utah
Indiana +15 @ Penn State

Record: 33-39 on units (28-31 on selections)
Bank: $155.09

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.


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Mr T's Sweet 16

With only a little over a week left in the regular season, I figured it was time to put up some rankings. I probably should've been throwing these out there for a while now, but it's the first year here at Rise and Fire.

#1 - Pittsburgh – Pitt is a well rounded team that will give you 100% effort in every game. They've shown vulnerability when Blair gets in foul trouble, but since every team has a fault, I find this one to be the least concerning.
#2 - North Carolina - They have as much offensive balance as any team in the country, but their defensive effort and closing of games ability can be questioned. If Lawson can get a wingman for late game situations, and there are enough options, they'll settle that issue.
#3 - Memphis - They're outside shooting isn't great, but you know you're getting defense, athleticism, and Tyreke Evans when you need him.
#4 - Connecticut - The loss of Jerome Dyson has brought the perimeter defense down to last year's levels. UConn also lacks a true three-point gunner. AJ Price and their interior size, however, will take them pretty far.
#5 - Villanova - While undersized, Nova still hits the boards with reckless abandon. They're a smart team with all the different ways to score (inside, dribble drive, and perimeter).
#6 - Michigan St. - They have some issues with turnovers, but notice how they've done great work on the road in the Big Ten. They've got a great threat at PG and as long as they remember to play inside out, the offense is in line with the strong defense.
#7 - Oklahoma - Blake Griffin will return and while the team lacks great defense, the emergence of Juan Patillo (though suspended this weekend) brings extra offense to a team that didn't need it.
#8 - Louisville - Guard play will eventually bite the Cardinals in the butt, but Terence Williams is going to do his best to make sure that's later rather than sooner. Preparing for Louisville's defense on a short week won't be a cup of tea.
#9 - Missouri - 40 minutes of hell is back and Missouri has the athletes to back it up. The limited preparation for the second game of the weekend will help their cause, but they might fall a little short in the backcourt.
#10 - Wake Forest - When their head is in the game, Wake Forest can play with anyone in the country. They lack a consistent three-point shooting threat outside of Teague, but they'll run with the best of em.
#11 - Clemson - Decision making and execution will probably be the Tigers' Achilles heel. The loss to Virginia Tech showed mediocre coaching and questionable point guard generalship on the final play, but their natural talent and pressing defense should take them far.
#12 - Kansas - It's rather amazing what Bill Self has done despite losing five NBA players from last year's National Championship team. They'll probably come up short on experience on a given night, but they have as much talent as anyone.
#13 - Duke - Rise and Fire's favorite whipping boy might've stepped their game up with the addition of Elliot Williams to the starting lineup. I mentioned in November that he wasn't playing enough and Coach K finally listened. The interior offense and defense, however, will be the death of them.
#14 - Arizona St. - When the best player on the court is on your squad, you'll win more than you lose. ASU's zone defense is another one of those tough second game preparation defenses.
#15 - Marquette - The injury to Dominic James shouldn't hurt them as much as you think because of his poor foul and three-point shooting. They'll need to get a rhythm in the coming weeks and they're bench will shrink just a little bit.
#16 - Purdue - Boilermaker finds are excited for next year, but this year's team can still play. They're a little short in the frontcourt (as was seen last night while missing Calasan), but they have enough on both ends of the floor to survive a couple games.
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Road Warriors

Tuesday was a nice day in the sun. A couple of home favorites treated us well as Ohio State coasted and LSU took care of business. Being 11-5 on selections in the last week is a nice feeling. There seems to be light at the end of the tunnel, so I’m pouncing on the momentum.

Tonight, we’re going with three road teams. It’s two units on Purdue -2 @ Michigan. Purdue’s defense should handle Beilein’s offense and the Wolverines are slowly finding their way into the NIT. Maybe Memphis -4 @ UAB is a trap situation, but since no one’s playing as well as Memphis these days, I’ll throw a unit behind them. They realize this is the last tough game before the NCAA tournament and Calipari should have them focused. I’ll also take one unit on Minnesota +8 @ Illinois. When Illinois encounters good defensive teams, their offense goes into the tank. Expect another Big Ten slugfest.

Record: 32-36 on units (27-29 on selections)
Bank: $165.09

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.


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Sometimes it Rains

I was feeling very good about the fund at 9pm ET on Sunday. I was 3-0 on picks for the day and Wake had cut a 22-point Duke lead down to two. I was within sniffing distance of getting back to square one with the fund. Then Wake let Duke go on a 13-4 run and the game was over. Regardless, I still see progress in my results over the last week.

Now I look to find a little opportunity in Super Tuesday. I’ll take LSU -4 vs. Florida for one unit. LSU has quietly disposed of all SEC competition and Florida is a sub-par road team. They’re getting too much respect in this game. They don’t deserve to have a perceived edge on a neutral floor. I’ll also take one unit on Ohio State -4.5 vs. Penn State. Ohio State has been stifled by tough defenses lately and they’ll gladly welcome the cupcake Nittany Lions to town. With a major edge in the frontcourt, I expect the Buckeyes to roll.

Record: 30-36 on units (25-29 on selections)
Bank: $155.64

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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What to Watch for: 2/23 – 3/1

Big Monday just won’t be the same without Blake Griffin in the middle. Oklahoma is smartly resting him (this writer knows concussions are no joke) and it might actually help their March Madness cause to learn how to win without him against Kansas.

Tuesday night finally provides some reason to watch SEC basketball with Florida taking a trip to Baton Rouge for a showdown against LSU. Florida’s road record is highly lacking, so the Gators will need to turn up the heat to improve their seeding.

Without Jerome Dyson, Connecticut may find it a little harder to keep Marquette’s super Senior trio out of the paint when they head to Milwaukee on Wednesday. Marquette will have to prove they can handle teams with interior scoring.

Arizona State faces off against Washington on Thursday in a showdown for Pac Ten supremacy. The winner will have the inside track on the #1 seed in the conference tournament.

Clemson travels down to Florida State on Saturday looking for revenge. We’ll see whether Clemson has mentally stabilized as well as if Florida State is ready to play with expectations.

It’s not an easy week for LSU as they end it with a road contest at Kentucky. Their motivation may stem on Tuesday’s result, but Kentucky should be extremely motivated with few quality wins on their resume.

Sunday’s have become my favorite day for college basketball and this one will be no different. Marquette, fresh off their UConn game, rolls into Louisville in a game with Big East seeding implications. Kansas gets a chance to avenge their disappointing finish when they traveled to Missouri. Finally, Illinois and Michigan State should provide about 110 points of offense in an all out brawl.
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Slowdown Sunday

It's back-to-back days of recaps as the blog pushes forward. I always find Sunday's a little more enjoyable because I find it easier to analyze the games. There's less channel changing and only a few games on at once to focus on.

• Syracuse players might want to start calling out screens or else Johnny Flynn is gonna get killed.
• Cuse becomes too stagnant on offense at times. I’m not sure if it’s laziness or coaching, but there was too much perimeter passing and lack of movement during a lull in the second half.
• Boeheim went too long with Ongenaet at the five spot. This is possibly why the offense lacked movement since there was no interior scoring option on the floor. Nova was also able to attack the glass without Jackson or Onuaku present.
• Andy Rautins was throwing up a few too many 3s. After swishing early, he lost his touch, but kept firing. While shooters have to shoot themselves out of slumps, taking it to the basket might’ve been a nice change of pace.
• There are a lot of things to like about the Wildcats. Nova cuts up the press. They make few mental mistakes. They have five players who average two offensive rebounds a game, which shows tenacity and a great nose for the ball. And finally they have good hands to swipe the rock away from the ball-handler.
• Freshman Andre Young gives Clemson instant offense off the bench, but can get careless with the ball. When his head’s on straight, he combines with Potter for a productive second unit.
• Raymond Sykes is a moron. He’s athletic yes, but he makes some asinine decisions on the floor.
• Michigan State was inept offensively for the first 30 minutes of their game against Wisconsin. Then they started bringing the focus back on getting the ball inside and the points started flowing. Go figure…
• Wisconsin’s offense, on the other hand, was moving until the final ten minutes. They’re motion offense became too perimeter oriented and they stayed out of the lane. Too often they relied on Hughes to create something off the dribble. Where was the posting of guards at least that we’ve come to know from Wisconsin? They needed to get something established inside to get easier looks and to open up kick-outs for their three-point attempts.
• Duke has turned to Elliot Williams at PG to get more pressure on the basketball. This leads to more athleticism and defensive ball pressure, but it should allow for teams to pressure Duke as well.
  
• Wake Forest fell asleep for ten minutes in the first half and it cost them the game. They lost focus, possibly due to the lack of upperclassmen. Their turnovers let Duke build a lead they never relinquished.

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One Month for the Resume

With only one month left until the tournament starts, it’s time to dig deeper into what’s out there. Although I probably should’ve focused a little more on the BracketBuster side of things, I like to save that for conference tournament time to catch teams as their entering Selection Sunday. I was able to catch some of that action as well as the numerous other games on Saturday’s card.

• Although it's not tournament related, it needs to be said that Jim Calhoun is a whiny cry baby.
• Davidson will be a non-factor in this year’s tournament. Don’t expect another Elite Eight run because they lack a cohesive offense outside of letting Curry rip it up.
• Butler on the other hand showed some nice features. Gordon Heyward is a player in the Singler/Hummel mode, who somehow escaped the Big Ten. Matt Howard’s got moves in the post. They probably couldn’t handle a team with superior athleticism, but the right matchup could suit them.
• St. Mary’s is coming along without Patty Mills. The win against Utah St. will prove to be vital on their resume. Omar Samhan is an immovable object in the lane. The only thing St. Mary’s could’ve done better was get Diamon Simpson the ball more, but that will happen when their PG returns. Hopefully the improvements elsewhere don’t go out the window.
• North Carolina got a little tight in the final minutes against Maryland. Danny Green, specifically, came up short on a couple shots, which just screams of nervous energy.
• While I do like Marquette’s perimeter trio, it does worry me that they don’t have a post presence. What separates them from a team like Duke is that their offense don’t rely heavily on the three-pointer and because all of their guards can attack the rim. Plus I have faith in the seniors' ability to score late in a close game.
• Marquette’s defense isn’t as good as it’s been in previous years. McNeal still deserves the defensive praise, but they lack an interior presence and they give up too many good looks from range.
• It looks like Providence won’t make the tournament, but if they do, remember that defense isn’t part of their vocabulary.
• When the game was on the line, Tyreke Evans did what was necessary to get Memphis the win. He started looking for his shot and dribbled off screens to find open 18-footers. The only negative was his inability to completely ice the game with better foul shooting.
• California lacked leadership in the final minutes against Oregon State and typically that falls on the shoulders of Jerome Randle, one of my least favorite point guards. The Bears only had seven assists as a team and you couldn’t tell Randle was even on the floor during half the game.
• The other knock on Cal’s performance was lackluster defending. Get your hands up fellas!

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More of the Same

The Super Saturday ended up being rather average as I split the units and selections right down the middle at 50% accuracy. Thanks to vig, that doesn’t make for a good day, but I’m licking my chops for Sunday’s slate.

The filet mignon on my menu today is three units on Wake Forest +7 vs. Duke with another single unit on the Wake Forest +250 money line. If you need to know why I’m picking Wake Forest today, you obviously haven’t been following portions of this website. But yes, Duke is still my favorite team. I'll reiterate that you bet with your head and not your heart.

Other than Wake, I’ll take one unit on Clemson -7 @ Georgia Tech, one unit on Wisconsin and Michigan State under 126.5, and one unit on Minnesota -6 vs. Northwestern. Georgia Tech’s program seems to be in shambles and word out of Clemson is that they’re starting to understand the mental approach needed every game. Wisconsin will keep the game low scoring against the Spartans because that’s the only chance they’ll have to win. Expect tough defense, poor shooting, and a nice low total. Minnesota is happy to be home, so expect them to be licking their chops against Northwestern.

Record: 27-32 on units (22-27 on selections)
Bank: $162.34

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.


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Super Saturday

Wednesday was a nice day for the fund with a three game sweep, but there’s no party to throw just yet. There’s still that mountain to climb. This Saturday’s slate has 101 betting propositions, which sounds like any gambling junkie’s birthday. After suddenly increasing from one game a day to the three that were bet on Wednesday, today’s choices will double Wednesday’s figure (and hopefully the result).

I’ll take one unit on Providence -1.5 vs. Notre Dame because of the constantly talked about home/road split and Providence’s athleticism on the perimeter. Gimme one unit on Indiana +21.5 @ Purdue because I expect a Purdue letdown and a feisty effort from the Hoosiers. We’ll up it to two units for Marquette +3 @ Georgetown. I like the experience edge Marquette has and the fact Georgetown hasn’t beaten anyone decent since UConn. UCLA -12.5 vs. Washington State smells like a one unit play because Washington State’s man defense actually plays into the hands of UCLA, who is much better at home. California is looking for revenge at a resilient Oregon State team and the Cal -5 cooks into a two unit selection since Oregon State doesn’t defend the three-point line well. Finally it’s Depaul +25.5 @ Pittsburgh for one unit. While it looked extra nice at +27 when it opened, I’ll still take it here for one unit expecting a Panthers letdown from Monday’s slugfest.

Record: 23-28 on units (19-24 on selections)
Bank: $165.06

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.


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Rock Bottom

I’m not sure if anyone smells what I’m cooking these days. It’s been a struggle to find my niche, but the fund is still in its preliminary stages. At day’s end, I’d rather win big in March than pick up a few extra pennies in February. I don’t want this to be perceived as my willingness to accept this current poor performance. It’s more that there is still a hill to climb.

With that hill staring me right in the face, I’ve decided to choose three games for Wednesday’s card. I’ll take two units on West Virginia -9 vs. Notre Dame. The home/road split with the teams involved is rather obvious along with Notre Dame not looking that tremendous against USF. I’ll take one unit on Louisville -12 vs. Providence. I don’t see Providence having the defensive guard play to cause Louisville trouble. Finally I’ll like Penn State +9.5 @ Illinois for one unit because Illinois’ recent form has the public too excited about them and I think the PSU guards are back.

Record: 19-28 on units (16-24 on selections)
Bank: $146.16

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.


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Smacked Around in Mackey

Tuesday night’s Michigan State vs. Purdue contest had a couple of question marks as we approached tip-off. Answers were found in the starting lineup for Purdue with Robbie Hummel and the indication that Raymar Morgan would be able to give Michigan State about 15-20 minutes. Michigan State is probably still asking questions of themselves after a disappointing performance in Mackey Arena. Michigan State hadn’t lost a conference road game all year, but they looked like an unsettled bunch in dealing with the Purdue crowd. Star PG Kalin Lucas unraveled under the pressure. He was unable to find his shot and was a human turnover machine.

Where was the interior offense from the Spartans? Delvon Roe had become a factor offensively and only took three shots. Goran Suton found himself taking too many perimeter jumpers. MSU became a jump shooting team and that’s where Purdue’s defensive strength lies. They should’ve attacked Hummel’s bad back on the post and beaten him down with Suton, Roe, Morgan, and Gray. I’m not sure if it was Izzo’s inferior game plan, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. The blame for Michigan State’s lack of offensive efficiency falls on Lucas’ shoulders because too many possessions led to rushed shots instead of entry passes to the post. Lucas was someone I looked forward to watching in March, but now I need a little more convincing.

Purdue excelled with the encouragement of their home crowd. If you didn’t hear during the broadcast, Duke was able to take the Boilermaker fans out of the game during their visit, but Michigan State was unable to do so. I’m going to make the assumption that Hummel’s back won’t be 100% at any point this season. His injury has allowed JaJuan Johnson to become the focal point of the offense and that’s definitely a positive. The offense really moves when the focus is on Johnson with Hummel and Moore playing complimentary roles. Most importantly, Purdue was able to succeed with a lackluster performance from three-point range because they finally stepped up the defensive intensity.

My issue with Purdue still lies in the point guard position. Lewis Jackson gets a little careless with the rock and goes too fast. It is tough succeeding in March with a point guard who is a freshman and the other Boilermaker guards aren’t the greatest ball-handlers. If Purdue stays away from a pressure defense, they’ll be successful, but pressure could send them packing.
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All Quiet on the NCAA Front

It wasn’t the most eventful weekend of basketball with very few matchups amongst Top 25 teams. There’s always good knowledge to be absorbed, however, so here’s what was brought to the table:

• When West Virginia beats someone on the road, call me.
• UCLA can’t play well offensively against a zone defense. Their newly upgraded offense looked pedestrian on the Arizona trip over the weekend. Sure they jobbed by the refs in the Arizona State, but the Arizona game was embarrassing.
• Syracuse will have issues in close games, but maybe that’s too obvious of a statement. Their foul shooting is piss-poor and Onuaku can’t even be on the floor late in games because his percentage is less than 25%. Blowing a 16-point lead at home with less than five minutes to go, despite winning, is rather disgraceful.
• Wisconsin is slowly building a tournament resume as they work their way through the system. They still lack a dynamic offense, so don’t get too excited about their prospects.
• Penn State’s guard could finally be coming out of their offensive funk. Minnesota’s known for their defense in the backcourt, and although it was a road game, I expected them to contain Battle and Pringle. Penn State’s success going forward rests on the shoulders of their two guards.
• Clemson looked rather lost in the last few minutes of regulation and in overtime. They need some leadership from the backcourt and didn’t get it while falling flat on their face at Virginia.
• Duke needs to stop letting teams shoot above 50% from the field. Things, however, may never be on the up and up without a shot blocker in the middle.
• Michigan’s Manny Harris is an exciting young player. It’s probably a year too early if Michigan makes it to the dance, but beware of upset city, courtesy of Manny Harris.

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What to Watch for: 2/16 – 2/22

Big Monday goes to new heights when Pittsburgh heads to Hartford for a showdown with Connecticut. For some reason I’m a little worried what happens to Pittsburgh if they lose both UConn games, but I’m not asking the same question about the Huskies…

I’m not sure if Robbie Hummel will be back for the Boilermakers on Tuesday night, but Purdue will need him if they plan on giving Michigan State a game. MSU hasn’t won in their last two trips to Mackey Arena and if it wants to be considered a true Final Four candidate, they’ll need a win this time.

UCLA just had a terrible week in Arizona and things won’t come easy at home vs. Washington on Thursday. If Washington’s smart, they’ll show the Bruins some zone defense.

Stephon Curry’s ankle will come into question on Bracket Buster Saturday against Butler. Davidson could use a marquee win because they haven’t fared well against Top 25 teams.

Texas could throw some zone at Oklahoma and they have some nice athletic size to handle Blake Griffin. The Oklahoma backcourt isn’t one to press, so Texas might have a chance at home come Saturday.

The SEC gets lost in the shuffle these days because no team is ranked in the Top 25. Kentucky hosts Tennessee on Saturday with some work left to do for a tournament guarantee.

Syracuse could use some payback when Villanova comes calling on Sunday. They were embarrassed in Philadelphia and need to keep accumulating wins, especially at home.

Wake Forest’s trip to Duke sounded a lot better three weeks ago, but it’s still a pivotal game with both teams struggling mightily. Wake Forest seems to show up for the big ones and Duke needs to find a way to not go stagnant offensively and limit the opponent’s FG% for a change.
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Be My Valentine

I hate to be one for sour grapes, but Thursday's incorrect UCLA selection was highly impacted by some very questionable refereeing. The referees involved seemed very home court conscious, specifically with a charging call on Collison with 38 seconds left that was quite bush league. There's nothing one can do about it now, however, as we must face the music and move on. Saturday's card provided a laundry list of college games, but not many that really struck me as betting opportunities. There are a few places I could lay my money, but the point here is to back bets I'm feeling confident with, especially with my recent limitation of one game a day.

With all that in mind, today's play is only one unit on Wisconsin -6 vs. Ohio State. OSU is a young team playing in a road environment that's never friendly. Wisconsin has been playing much better lately and I expect the defensive intensity to frazzle the young Buckeyes. Wisconsin's tough and physical nature in the frontcourt will negatively impact Mullens and Turner. Bo Ryan, will you be my Valentine?

Record: 19-27 on units (16-23 on selections)
Bank: $151.16

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Revenge is Always Sweet

I got into an argument on a message board in the last few days over the Duke/UNC affair as a betting proposition. The message board bases a majority of their wagers on betting against public perception. With their theories, Duke +2 seemed like a nice idea to them. As an avid follower of Duke basketball, I tried to get them to back down from the cause because I felt very strongly about UNC taking the game easily. That led to numerous insults from the firing squad and eventually they banned me from the site. It seems as if they couldn't take some conversation in regards to one of the selections, despite the fact that I had agreed with some of their previous choices. I do believe there's value in what you actually watch in the games.

The same theory applies tonight when it comes to UCLA -1 @ Arizona State. I've been on the UCLA bandwagon the last two weeks because of the offensive adjustments they've made. They're playing as well as any team in the country these days, which is not what's been going on with Arizona State. Add the motivation for UCLA after losing in the earlier encounter at home and this one seems like a two unit play to me. It might not sit well with the message board people, but I'll take it for tonight.

Record: 19-25 on units (16-22 on selections)
Bank: $161.16

Mr. T's basketball fund started with an imaginary $200 and each unit represents $5 of action for every game he picks.

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Not So Crazy At Cameron

It was inevitable, at least in my eyes, that North Carolina would take Duke to the woodshed last night. It took some yelling and screaming at halftime, but eventually that ended up being the case. Duke consistently struggles in recent years with teams who have more athletic players than them and last night was no different. Let's not start with Duke, however, because the focus of the game should be North Carolina.

UNC brought their best game for 30 of the 40 minutes. They started out by attacking Duke inside and used their length and athleticism to slow the Duke offense. But after gaining an early lead, they turned down their intensity level and starting getting lazy on the defensive end. Carolina actually struggled when Duke pushed the hot pace right back at them towards the end of the half. UNC started rushing questionable shots and the speed of the game took some energy away from their defensive effort. After halftime, Carolina came out focused and the key was Ty Lawson. No one on Duke can keep him out of the lane, but he didn't seem into the game early on. Once he flipped the switch in the second half, it was game over for the Blue Devils. Hansborough only had nine shots, making six, and didn't force himself into the offense. I thought they could've used him more, but it was nice to see they could win without him being dominant. Dion Thompson and Ed Davis provide a nice compliment to Hansborough inside. The only problematic thing for UNC was the play of freshman PG Larry Drew off the bench. He looked unprepared for such a big stage. The bottom line for the Tar Heels is that we saw they can play as well as anyone, offensively and defensively, when they are focused on the task at hand.

It's the same story as always for Duke, but I'll note a few things. Greg Paulus had zero points in the second half after providing all the energy in the first half. Duke was only in the game because of a great shooting stretch when UNC took down the intensity level. It might seem odd that Duke, a good defensive team, gave up so many points, but they just don't have the personnel to D up Carolina. There was a long stretch in the second half where Duke couldn't score and it was a result of two factors. Gerald Henderson disappeared offensively and floated around instead of looking for the rock and driving it. Secondly, when you don't have a post presence (yes, we're beating a dead horse), it's harder to get easy scores. If you live by the three, you die by the three. Typically, Coach K went away from using his bench (zero minutes for Louis Williams) in a bigger game. If there's one positive, it was that Nolan Smith looked less lost.
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